The Obama Administration sets up the Global Health Security Unit, attached to the White House’s National Security Council. Its purpose: to monitor outbreaks of infectious diseases around the world and quickly move to counter them. A lengthy playbook is created to deal with such contingencies.

The National Security Council’s pandemic response team tasks Tom Bossert to develop a comprehensive biodefense strategy, to be directed by retired Admiral Tim Ziemer.

Trump fires Bossert per the request of incoming National Security Advisor John Bolton.

The Worldwide Threat Assessment warns that the United States and the world remain vulnerable to a new flu pandemic.

The GLOBAL HEALTH SECURITY INDEX is released. This index is based on a study by Johns Hopkins and public health actors probing for weaknesses in world nations' abilities to prevent, detect, and respond to disease outbreaks. All countries are seen to have gaps in capabilities. The report calls on the UN to hold a "heads of state" summit in 2020 to address a growing risk of outbreaks. [Ironically, the US was felt to be the least ill-prepared, based upon our highly advanced health infrastructure, and an assumption that we would follow "best practices" guidelines.]

The Trump administration eliminates the post of an American epidemiologist embedded in China’s disease control agency. Her job was to train Chinese epidemiologists to deploy to outbreaks and help investigate, track, and contain the pathogen. [In Spring 2021, it is reported that three members of the Wuhan Institute of Virology became ill with a new respiratory disease, which some suspect was due to coronavirus. This highly significant assertion - suggesting the possibility of a leak from the WIV lab - remains under investigation.]

The Chinese note 41 cases of pneumonia-like syndrome by this date, which are later confirmed to be COVID-19. Many (though not all) such cases were associated with Wuhan’s wet market.

Wuhan’s Center for Disease Control sends an internal memo directing hospitals to look into causes of their pneumonias. The ER director at Wuhan Central Hospital puts the word SARS onto data she forwards. When ophthalmologist Li Wenliang passes this apparent confirmation of a coronavirus onto WeChat, it gets more widely disseminated than the small group he intended and lands him in trouble with Chinese authorities.

The Chinese announce they have identified the new disease as a coronavirus. The Executive Director of the Health Emergencies Program at the World Health Organization points out that, as a respiratory pathogen, human-to-human transmission is possible.

The genetic sequence of the virus is put in the NIH’s databank.

Wuhan begins screening all departing air/rail/train passengers. Since those without symptoms can be carriers, and many who are ill do not mount fevers, this renders the scanning of travelers by temperature checks imperfect at best.

Europe’s CDC publishes a summary of 44 cases in China. Imperial College in London estimates that the actual number must be close to 1,700.

America’s CDC sends workers to SFO, LAX, and JFK airport to assist in the screening of passengers returning from China. It is unclear how many (if any) returnees were quarantined as a result.

South Korea and the US both confirm their first cases of COVID-19. South Korea mobilizes its health agencies and medical companies to deal with the contagion through the standard approaches of aggressive testing, contact tracing, and isolation. The Trump administration, in contrast, does virtually no testing for the next six weeks.

Asked about the virus at the Davos Summit, Trump says: “We have it totally under control… It’s one person coming from China. It’s going to be just fine.”

South Korea engages its corporations to mass produce the needed test kits.

The WHO declares COVID-19 a Global Emergency. There are now 98 known cases in 18 countries outside China. It urges all nations to review plans, find gaps, and evaluate resources needed to identify, isolate, and treat.

HHS Secretary Azar again tries to warn Trump of the seriousness of the COVID-19 outbreak. Trump calls him an “alarmist.”

In Chicago, the first person-to-person transmission in the US is documented. A woman returning from Wuhan comes down with the virus, then passes it to her husband who did not go to China.

South Korea ships thousands of test kits overseas. America's CDC produces enough to test ~150,000 people, but problems immediately develop with them.

Trump tweets: “President Xi leads a very successful operation. We are working closely with China to help.” The US does in fact help China. It ships them 18 tons of medical equipment including masks, gowns, and respirators, despite the possibility of needing them here on the home front.

Speaking with reporter Bob Woodward, Trump admits to knowing that the new coronavirus is highly contagious, and quite virulent: “It goes through the air Bob… You just breathe the air and that’s how its passed… It's more deadly than your strenuous [sic] flu.”

Trump says in a speech: “We have a very small number of people in the country right now. It's like around 12. Many are getting better. Some are fully recovered already. So we’re in very good shape.”

Queried again about the dangers of the coronavirus, Trump claims: “I think it's going to work out fine… when we get into April the warmer weather has a negative effect on the virus.”

Trump states: “Because of all we’ve done the risk to the American people is very low. 15 people. Within a couple of days it’s going to be down close to zero. That’s a pretty good job we’ve done.”

‍HHS Secretary Azar is starting to be sidelined by Trump, who announces that he will put together a new Coronavirus Task Force headed by Vice President Mike Pence.

US testing resumes with a new test. By this point, the WHO has shipped 1.4M tests to countries around the world, but not the United States, which turned their tests down. The total number of tests conducted in the US at this point in time is, rather amazingly, numbered only in the hundreds.

The first death in the United States - recognized at the time as COVID - takes place in Washington state. For weeks, epidemiologists near Seattle have been convinced that the disease has been spreading person-to-person.

South Korea sets up drive-through clinics capable of detecting viral infections within 10 minutes. By now, this nation of 52M people has performed 136,000 tests. Meanwhile, the US, with a population of 329M (over six times larger), has done fewer than 1,000.

The March 7th issue of New Scientist magazine reports that COVID-19 has now spread to 70 countries. China was doing 1.6 million tests per week and South Korea upwards of 10,000 per day to screen their populations at this time. By Feb 28, the UK had tested 13,000 people. In contrast, the US had tested a total of about 2,500 people by this date. [This lack of early testing would thwart the ability of many nations, the US in particular, to contain the disease.]

The White House Coronavirus Task Force receives the Imperial College of London study which estimates that if the US government does not take swift and aggressive actions to counter Covid-19 spread, 2 million deaths could follow in the United States.

Trump announces restrictions on travel from Europe. They are to go into effect March 14. [Later study of viral strains indicates that the East Coast got a strain which came through Europe, suggesting that people restricted from direct flights to the US from China in February may have first flown to Europe before it too faced restrictions on travel.]

Asked at a press conference if he takes responsibility for the country’s delays in Covid testing, Trump replies: “I don’t take responsibility at all.” When a reporter then questions his dismantling of the pandemic response team, Trump calls the question “nasty.” He also claims to know nothing about it.

San Francisco Bay Area officials announce shelter-in-place regulations to go into effect the following day. They elect to move in the wake of no recommendations by federal or state health authorities to restrict people's activities, though the disease continues to spread across the nation.

Trump now reverses his prior rhetoric, and suggests that for 15 days Americans might want to work at home and avoid unnecessary shopping. Citizens are further suggested to avoid eating out and joining groups of greater than 10 people. No recommendation is made for anyone to wear a mask.

Over a 14-day period starting March 3rd, the US goes from 159 confirmed COVID cases to >100,000.

Trump now claims that “Nobody knew about the pandemic.” The reality is that international health authorities had predicted for decades that just such a thing would inevitably happen.

Trump also claims that the system he “inherited” was “obsolete and didn’t work.” He further claims - falsely - that hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine have been approved by the FDA.

Armed with only anecdotal evidence from one rural New York doctor, Trump tweets: "HYDROXYCHLOROQUINE & AZITHROMYCIN, taken together, have a real chance to be one of the biggest game changers in the history of medicine." [Multiple studies soon confirm that this drug combination has no real value for treating Covid, yet Trump and allies will persist in making this claim month after month as the pandemic continued its march across the nation.]

The WHO warns that, with 46,500 cases and 600 deaths, the US stands to become the world’s Covid epicenter. One week earlier those numbers stood at just 6,300 cases and only 108 deaths.

Trump says he wants the country “back to work by Easter” (which is 19 days in the future). At a Texas town hall meeting, he states that: “In the last 8 days we’ve done more testing than South Korea has in 8 weeks.” While this number is (almost) true in absolute terms, the Koreans had in fact done 7x the number of tests as the USA on a per capita basis.

The minimalist actions of the Trump administration to counter the contagion are declared (by Trump) to be a tremendous success, saying: “… think of the numbers… potentially 2 million people if we did nothing.” To this, he adds: “If the US death toll remains below 100,000 it would mean my administration had done a very good job.” [The actual death toll was over 400,000 as he left office.]

When he is asked if the US needs expanded COVID testing before re-opening its economy, Trump denies that there is any such need: “We want to have it, and we’re going to see if we have it. Do you need it? No. Is it a nice thing to do? Yes.”

Trump claims in a press briefing (incorrectly) that he has "total authority" to overrule state governors and re-open the country. 24 hours later, he reverses himself yet again.

Governors and state officials report shortages of reagents, swabs, etc. This restricts the ability to perform tests. Trump, meanwhile, releases his guidelines for re-opening the economy. It is more vague and less restrictive than the CDC's plan.

The US is finally doing 150,000 tests per day, but a Harvard panel states that the safe re-opening of businesses will require more like 5M tests per day by early June.

Trump tells the press that Robert Redfield was “totally misquoted” regarding a resurgence of the virus in winter. Trump notes, to the contrary: “it’s possible it won’t come back at all.”

Redfield again asks the White House to approve the CDC’s 63-page set of guidelines for the safe re-opening of the economy. He is told on April 30th that it will never see the light of day.

Some states lift coronavirus restrictions. None meet the standard (per Trump’s own guidelines) of seeing a 14 day decline in new COVID-19 cases.

At HHS, an "assistant director" is brought in to control PR. Michael Caputo, long-time Republican political operative with no background in medicine or science, takes control of media for the CDC, NIH, FDA, Dr. Fauci, and Alex Azar himself. Caputo stresses a need for loyalty to the president. Shockingly, he moves to censor the CDC’s Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report.

An epidemiology model cited by the White House revises its projections. In light of the reduced social distancing and increased mobility of Americans expected over the next week, the number of deaths expected by early August doubles to ~135,000. [That number was, in fact, achieved by July 8th.]

The New Yorker magazine reveals that epidemiologists in Washington state were unable to test for COVID in January as suspected cases did not meet a criteria of arrival from China. So, lab workers jury-rigged tests to confirm the presence of COVID and person-to-person spread.

Former CDC Director Tom Frieden opines that if New York state had implemented stay-at-home orders just ten days earlier, deaths might have been reduced 50-80 percent.

The USA is now performing 250,000 COVID tests each day.

Trump again blames the frightening rise in case numbers on the fact that we test for the disease! Rather astoundingly, he states: “If we did very little testing we wouldn’t have the most cases.”

Trump tells Bob Woodward he does not recall being briefed on January 28th that the virus would be the “biggest national security threat of his presidency.” He does not deny that he must have been told this, saying: “I’m sure he said it, you know? I’m sure he said it. Nice guy.”

Trump again states that the virus “will just go away.” [It did not.]

Trump calls Fauci’s warnings “unacceptable” and states that schools should re-open in the fall.

The US COVID-19 death toll now exceeds 78,000. This is more than double a typical flu season’s total, but these COVID deaths took place in just over ten weeks.

Nicholas Kristof in the NY Times explains why claims of inflated COVID numbers are wrong. Kristof cites massive under-reporting in April. Due to test shortages, many deaths could not be verified as COVID. He also points to a large number of excess deaths this year versus last. This number is completely consistent with the viral case figures.

Trump stops receiving briefings from Dr. Fauci.

Visiting a Michigan factory being re-tooled to make ventilators, Trump is asked by authorities to mask up. Trump refuses. He explains: “Not necessary, I’ve been tested,” which indicates that Trump does not understand mask use. He adds: “I don’t want to give the press the pleasure of seeing it.”

The Atlantic magazine reports that the CDC has mixed data from direct viral testing with blood antibody tests. This has sown confusion in the states looking to re-open. Antibody testing is not useful in making these decisions as one needs to know who is currently infectious, not who had it.

Dr. Fauci asks Americans to wear masks, calling them a safeguard even if not 100% effective.

Trump shares a tweet, which argues that the mandating of face masks is something that represents a “culture of silence, slavery and social death.”

The Economist reports that the Trump White House's efforts to handcuff the CDC have sidelined the world’s premiere public health agency. Dr. Deborah Birx is quoted as saying, “There is nothing from the CDC I trust,” an astonishing statement from a doctor tasked with managing the pandemic.

The Washington Post reports on the manner in which the European travel ban was instituted. Allowing people to return (before the ban) through crowded airports - jamming people into tight corridors – made matters worse. It surely facilitated spread of the disease.

Dr. Rick Bright, the former top federal vaccine official, testifies to the House of Representatives that in January/February he saw a pandemic coming and pleaded with HHS superiors to ramp up production of N95 masks. Bright predicts that without a US master plan, a second viral wave will arise in the Fall.

The New England Journal of Medicine publishes a study which indicates that hydroxychloroquine is not an effective COVID preventative. [Despite this and subsequent studies, the administration continued to advocate for this drug, for many more months.]

Trump claims in a press briefing he has "total authority" to overrule state governors and re-open the country (which was not true). He reverses himself again just 24 hours later.

Asked if he would attend an indoor rally, Dr. Anthony Fauci says “of course not.” Fauci and Dr. Deborah Birx both counsel Trump not to hold such events.

Brazil surges towards the world’s second highest COVID totals. Like the United States under Donald Trump, Brazil under Jair Bolsonaro put no national lockdown in place, instituted no national testing campaign, and has no agreed-upon plan of action - guaranteeing similar results.

The Trump campaign urges their supporters to bolster his audience in Tulsa. Surrogates fly out in chartered planes. Few if any wear masks. The campaign sets up testing sites, but they are available only to staffers, local leaders, and Trump's top supporters.

Trump's trade advisor Peter Navarro tries to counter the disastrous PR of admitting that testing has been slowed by claiming Trump was just kidding, speaking “tongue in cheek.”

Herman Cain becomes ill, and tests positive for COVID-19. By July 2nd, just ten days after the Tulsa campaign rally, Cain is in the hospital.

Trump holds a large Fourth of July rally at Mount Rushmore. Few supporters wear masks.

Trump announces he wants students in classes come fall. He belittles all those who disagree with him on this: “They think it’s going to be good for them politically, so they keep the schools closed.”

The Kaiser Foundation notes that, of 1.5 million American teachers, one in four has a condition putting them at increased COVID risk.

Florida hits 15,000 cases a day, more than New York’s worst day in April. Meanwhile, the White House releases a statement that officials are concerned about the number of times Dr. Fauci has been wrong.

South Korea publishes a study of 5,700 cases of COVID-19, and notes that youngsters 10-19 years of age can spread the virus at least as easily as adults.

Salon reports that Fauci has been sidelined by Mike Caputo since his hiring in April to reign in Alex Azar, who was thought by some in the administration to be making himself look better than Trump. [In February, Trump was enraged that he was being called slow-to-respond to the COVID crisis while Azar was perceived as wanting to be more aggressive.]

Fauci continues to offer opinions that are less sanguine than the White House, saying we are not winning the battle against the virus. Fauci tells the Wall Street Journal that COVID-19 is a health expert's "worst nightmare" and we are not even midway through it. [A prediction that has been borne out by subsequent events.]

“America’s Frontline Doctors,” an oddball assembly of physicians, puts out a video advancing Trump's claims on hydroxychloroquine and other Trump-supported ideas. One doctor claims to have “cured” patients with the drug. Dr. Stella Immanuel is later shown to support the idea that some gynecologic conditions come from “evil spirits.” This doctor assemblage is affiliated with the Tea Party.

The European Union reaffirms its restrictions on travel. Given America's out-of-control COVID situation, the United States remains restricted.

Herman Cain dies 40 days after he contracts COVID-19 at Trump’s Tulsa rally.

Trump publicly repeats his claim that young people are “almost immune” to the virus. He had told Bob Woodward four months earlier that COVID was also a disease of the young.

On Fox News, Dr. Scott Atlas, of Stanford’s conservative Hoover Institute, ridicules the testing of people who do not have symptoms while advocating for re-opening schools.

The Mayo Clinic posts results of a COVID convalescent plasma study. A slight improvement in 5% of patients was found. Given simultaneous use of other modalities, these results were unclear. Despite this uncertainty, the White House nevertheless pushes for emergency approval for its widespread use. Both NIH Director Francis Collins and Anthony Fauci argue that the data is far too weak.

The NY Times reports that decreased testing is hampering the fight against COVID in the US.

Trump announces FDA emergency use authorization for convalescent plasma. Citing the Mayo Clinic study, he claims incorrectly: “… it's been proven to reduce mortality 35%.” Secretary Azar repeats this incorrect claim. So does FDA head Steven Hahn. The real figure was 5%, and that was uncertain.

Health officials leak that the decision to change the CDC guidelines was political and top-down. Brett Giroir, Trump's “testing czar,” alleges that it was doctors who made the decision, including Dr. Fauci. It turns out, however, that Fauci was under anesthesia during the meeting to change the advice.

In response to the CDC’s changes, The American Academy of Pediatrics calls it “a dangerous step backwards.” The Society for Healthcare Epidemiology of America “vehemently” disagrees with the changes.

Undaunted by the NIH and Mayo Clinic, Trump tweets: “convalescent plasma has had a tremendous impact already.”

The CDC tells states to be ready to distribute a vaccine by October, despite there being zero chance of any large scale vaccine distribution by then. The director of federal COVID vaccine trials, Dr. Larry Grey, notes that seven months will be required to evaluate the “endpoints” of trials that were begun in July. While a limited number of still-experimental vaccines could be given out before the November election, something Trump keeps promoting, no mass immunizations can commence before 2021.

Trump urges colleges and universities to stay open.

The death toll in the US officially reaches 200,000, though it very probably reached that milestone a month earlier. This second 100,000 deaths took place since May 25th, or 112 days. The first 100K took ~82 days. This slowing of the fatality rate is credited to the countermeasures of mask wearing and social distancing, as well as hospitals refining and improving their treatments.

Estimates are that by December the US will have suffered 300,000 deaths over eleven months. [The actual total would turn out to be over 350,000.] By comparison, combat death totals for WWII tallied 291,000 over a 3.5 year period.

Asked about the safety of supporters during a crowded indoor rally in Nevada two days previously, Trump replied that he was not worried about them. He tells the Las Vegas Review-Journal: “I’m on a stage, it’s very far away, so I’m not at all concerned.”

A staffer from Mike Pence’s Coronavirus Task Force, Olivia Troye, denounces Trump's disregard of human life. Troye says the task force knew by mid-February that COVID would cause an American epidemic. Troye points out that Trump focused instead on economic numbers, despite the obvious fact that halting the toll of the virus was critical to the health of the economy, adding that he put his personal interests ahead of those of the country.

An official at the NIAID, Dr. Fauci's division at the NIH, is outed as the anonymous author of blog posts on the right-wing website Redstate. The posts mocked masks and disparaged Fauci. William Crews labelled Fauci a “mask Nazi,” calling masks a “political statement.”

According to NBC, reports of an “October Vaccine Surprise” - political maneuvers to advance vaccinations ahead of the time they are ready – are alarming scientists and doctors.

At a rally, Trump claims that COVID affects “virtually nobody” under 18. This is untrue, and contradicts what he told Woodward on March 19. Trump suggests that only older people with pre-existing conditions need fear the virus, and promises to end the pandemic if people will re-elect him.

Ophthalmologist Senator Rand Paul challenges infectious disease expert Anthony Fauci using incorrect data on “herd immunity." Dr. Fauci in turn rebukes Paul.

Dr. Stephen Hahn, the director of the FDA, reassures the nation that all vaccines will be verified as safe before they will be given out to the public.

Despite the governor's warning, a Trump indoor rally of 4,000 goes forward in Newport News, Virginia. Trump claims falsely that in the state of Virginia you are “not allowed to go to church, not allowed to go to a restaurant, not allowed to go to a friend’s house.”

NY Times reports that the White House blocked CDC orders to keep cruise ships docked until February, as this displeased Florida's tourism industry. New sailing date: October 31.

Donald Trump tweets at 1 AM that both he and the First Lady have tested positive for COVID. Few are surprised, given his flouting of mask and social restrictions, repeated rallies, and arrival of the disease in his inner circle. As an overweight 74-year-old, Trump is considered a high risk patient.

Trump receives dexamethasone, a steroid shown to help critically ill patients by tamping down a harmful immune response. Also, polyclonal antibodies designed to specifically attack COVID-19. Trump became one of fewer than ten people to ever receive this, since it is reserved under a “compassionate use" provision (the treatment was still undergoing clinical trials). Trump also got famotidine, an investigational COVID treatment.

By evening, a combination of feeling better, boredom, and a yearning for adulation motivates Trump to drive around waving at supporters accompanied by secret service agents.

For the third time in a month, the CDC changes its position on the spread of COVID. It now says that more distant airborne transmission is possible, though it more commonly moves person to person. This same position had been published in September, but was retracted three days later.

All but two US states report increases in the number of COVID cases vs the previous week. The CDC’s website reports its models predict 233,000 deaths by the end of October. [During this month, 31 states will set new records for COVID cases and the death toll will indeed reach over 230,000.]

Trump addresses a crowd of about 1,000 on the WH lawn with some masks evident, but no social distancing. Trump falsely states yet again - and just ten days after he himself catches the disease - that the virus is “disappearing.” Actually, the USA records its third consecutive day with 50,000 new cases. An increase of 57,000 over 24 hours is the highest spike since August.

‍The world records its highest number of daily COVID-19 cases since the pandemic began. This is fueled by a second wave in Europe. Meanwhile, India joins the US as the two nations with over 7M cases. Brazil has gone over the 5M mark and is in third place. The University of Washington’s model predicts a peak of 2,300 deaths per day in January and a total death count of ~400,000 by February 2021. [Both of these totals were exceeded. The death toll hit 470k by Feb 10, and as mentioned earlier the deaths per day went over 3,000.]
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NY Times reports the CDC had drafted a sweeping order in Sept requiring passengers and employees to wear masks on public and commercial transit. This was blocked by the White House. It was drafted under the CDC’s “quarantine powers” and had the support of HHS Secretary Azar. Mike Pence's Coronavirus Task Force declined to even discuss it. [The fall surge in cases that Pence predicted would never happen is something the former VP bears some responsibility for.]

Dr. Fauci tells CNN he hopes the latest data on a rising number of COVID cases (and additional deaths) will "jolt" the public into reality. He adds that holding large political rallies is “asking for trouble.”

Nevertheless, Trump holds a campaign rally in Florida where he continues to claim (without evidence) that the US pandemic is nearly over: “Under my leadership, we're delivering a safe vaccine and a rapid recovery like no one can even believe… If you look at our upward path, no country in the world has recovered the way we have recovered."

JAMA publishes a study showing 225,530 excess US deaths from March to July 2020. Deaths linked to COVID accounted for 151.000, or 67% of the total! JAMA also noted that with 60.3 deaths per 100,000, compared to 24.6 in neighboring Canada, the US experienced 117,000 more deaths than would be expected. Dr. Ezekiel Emmanuel, chairman of the Dept. of Medical Ethics & Health Policy at the University of Pennsylvania, commented: “That’s tens of thousands of Americans who have unnecessarily died.”

Campaign surrogate Rudy Giuliani tells a crowd in Philadelphia, “People don’t die of this disease any more," an amazingly disingenuous and asinine statement.

The US sees 69,100 new COVID cases in one day, the highest number since July. Experts say the long-feared fall surge of coronavirus infections is well underway. Epidemiologist Dr. Abdul El-Sayed states, "When we saw this kind of transmission earlier in the pandemic, in March and April, the virus hadn't seeded everywhere ... This surge has the potential to be way worse than it was, than either spring or summer." [A prediction that proves true.]
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Candidate Donald Trump, in contrast, continues to minimize the threat to public health posed by the coronavirus, and at a campaign rally in Florida, he tells the audience, "The light at the end of the tunnel is here," adding the US is "rounding the turn."

Over 1,000 current and former officers of an elite CDC disease-fighting program sign an open letter decrying the nation’s public-health response to coronavirus. The signatories, members of the Epidemic Intelligence Service of outbreak investigators, and frustrated by the CDC's anemic response to the worst pandemic in a century, call for the agency to play a more central role in battling COVID, writing:  “The absence of national leadership on COVID-19 is unprecedented and dangerous.”
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Trump tweets: "The United States shows more CASES than other countries, which the Lamestream Fake News Media pounces on daily, because it TESTS at such a high (and costly) level." In case this failed to hit home with his supporters, he further embellishes: "The more you TEST, the more CASES you will be reporting. Very simple!" [Nations which perform fewer tests on their citizens obtain lower numbers of cases, true, but hardly causes a reduction in the pandemic. It is simply not true that the increase in cases is only because of doing the testing.]

Twitter removes a tweet from Dr. Scott Atlas claiming that masks don't work to halt the spread of COVID-19. It is replaced with "This Tweet is no longer available," plus a link to Twitter policies explaining why certain posts are removed or limited. Twitter is reported to be taking a more aggressive approach to limit or remove misinformation (which this Tweet certainly was) as the election nears.

Despite Trump's hospitalization for COVID-19 earlier this month, he and his aides do not wear masks while at a church service in Nevada held indoors with over 200 in attendance.

In a 60 Minutes interview, Dr. Fauci says that “the president’s conduct made it unsurprising that he caught the coronavirus." He admits that the administration has tried to muzzle him.

Scientific American publishes an analysis of claims that the coronavirus death toll has been inflated. The magazine states: "These numbers are supported by three lines of evidence, including death certificates. The inaccurate idea that only 6 percent of the deaths were really caused by the coronavirus is 'a gross misinterpretation' of how death certificates work."

In the presidential debate, Trump unsurprisingly repeats numerous lies about coronavirus. Among them: (a) his leadership "prevented" two million deaths, (b) a vaccine is "ready," and (c) the nation is “rounding the turn" on infections. He also tries to pin his COVID missteps on Dr. Anthony Fauci, accusing our nation's top infectious disease expert of flip-flopping on advice. In typical Trump style, this is done via the use of misleading quotes taken out of context.

Just ten days before the election, the US sets a new daily record with 82,900 new COVID infections. Hospitals in the West and Midwest report being overwhelmed, and COVID death counts rise as a consequence.

At a Wisconsin campaign rally, Trump suggests that doctors could be inflating the COVID-19 death count so they can make more money. In this, he expands upon his March 30 claim that the reason face masks were in short supply in American hospitals was that doctors were selling them "out the back door."

Data from Oct 23 and 24 both show over 83,000 new cases - the highest ever. Experts predict the country will increase to 100,000 new cases per day in the near future. [Ironically, this sad milestone is achieved one day before the election.]

CNN reveals that last April, in conversation with Bob Woodward, Jared Kushner said: "We’ve now put out rules to get back to work. Trump’s now back in charge. It’s not the doctors. They’ve kind of – we have, like, a negotiated settlement." The statement reflects yet again the Trumpian political strategy for 2020: focus on shoving the economy forward vs following suggestions by health experts on fighting a pandemic.

At a rally, Trump again claims doctors fighting COVID lie about the number of cases for financial gain. Of the professionals fighting the pandemic, Trump says, "Our doctors get more money if someone dies from COVID. You know that, right? I mean our doctors are very smart people. So what they do is they say, 'I'm sorry but everybody dies of COVID.'"
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The president of the American Medical Association responds to the nation's nominal president by rebutting with, "The suggestion that doctors, in the midst of a public health crisis, are overcounting COVID-19 patients or lying to line their pockets is a malicious, outrageous, and completely misguided charge."
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At a rally in Omaha, Trump predicts for the umpteenth time an imminent decline in COVID cases. He opened his mouth and out came: "They'll go down. They'll go down very quickly. They'll be down within two weeks." As he trots this out, the nation continues its fall spiking of cases, and a new record - ~90,000 new cases per day - is set.

The COVID Tracking Project notes that, with 98,700 hospitalized cases Dec. 1st, the US has hit the highest number yet during the pandemic. This is more than double the number of hospitalizations Nov. 1st, and more than triple the number reported Oct. 1st!

The Trump administration holds to its prior policies, meaning COVID inaction. Meanwhile, the Department of Health and Human Services seeks to force the administrators of Medicare, Medicaid, and Obamacare to review regulations. This is expected to produce distractions for the incoming administration.

The United States hits 200,000 new cases per day over 5 days, pushing the total to 15.3M. California regains the top spot in the nation with 1.38M cases. Despite the nation's most populous state hitting the highest total, its per capita case rate remains well below the median for the country.

As Pearl Harbor Day is commemorated, the deaths from COVID-19 in the US soar to more than 2,200 a day, a number quite comparable to the 2,403 lives lost in the 1941 attack. Cases per day have eclipsed 200,000 on average for the first time since the start of the pandemic.

CDC director Robert Redfield warns the public that the COVID-19 pandemic has not yet peaked. [Indeed, for the next 60 to 90 days, it continues to kill more people each day than the attacks of September 11, 2001.] Across the nation, 107,000 people are hospitalized with COVID-19.

More than 1 million people have received their first shot of a COVID-19 vaccine. The US government says it intends to distribute 20 million first doses of the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines in the coming weeks. While this is slightly later than originally planned, the use of a messenger-RNA-based vaccine (a never-before-used approach) accounts for the remarkable speed of the rollout. The previous vaccine record was 4 years.

California becomes the first state to hit 2 million cases. Just six weeks earlier, the state stood at 1 million cases. The increases across the country have been attributed to people relaxing their physical distancing during the Thanksgiving holiday.

Dr. Drew Pinsky gets coronavirus and recovers. The TV doc stated early in the pandemic that the virus was much less serious than the flu, calling the concerns "press induced." To his credit, by early April, he apologized for "getting it wrong," and advised his audience to follow Dr. Fauci and the CDC, and take appropriate measures including masking and social distancing.

Donald Trump issues a New Year's Eve video about his "historic victories." The video includes in his history-making successes his handling of the coronavirus pandemic. In case anyone needs reminding, Trump, who contracted the coronavirus after ignoring masks and social distancing, frequently played down the severity of the pandemic while overseeing a disgraceful national response to COVID. The end of 2020 finds the United States leading the world in fatalities with more than 354,000. We did not see the video, but suspect this went unmentioned.

Data for the last day of the year shows over 3,700 US fatalities due to COVID, a new record, and a number of deaths that exceeds the total of the entire Tet offensive during the Vietnam war.

CDC statisticians note that COVID, which took no American lives in 2019, was the 3rd highest cause of death in the US in 2020. Using data dating to late December, the CDC concludes that there were 316K to 432K excess deaths in 2020, and (based upon death certificates) at least 301,000 of those (at minimum) came from COVID-19.

On the day the Capitol building is stormed to try and perpetuate the Trump administration past Jan 20th, the US, for the first time, hits 4,000 deaths in one day. Top COVID experts, including Anthony Fauci, explain that the outbreak is certain to get worse before it gets better.

COVID vaccinations run far behind schedule. Most states drew up plans that followed CDC guidance for the first phase of vaccinations, but the rollout was marred by lack of federal funding and unclear communication about the number of doses coming each week.

The office of the president remains focused elsewhere. Congressional Democrats vow to impeach Trump a second time in the wake of the January 6th putsch. It is clear that the House should have a Democratic majority sufficient to vote for a second Trump impeachment. It is equally clear that, despite the Senate now being in Democratic hands (thanks to their twin victories in Georgia), finding sufficient votes among GOP Senators to remove Trump from office in the 12 days he has left is unlikely.

The national death toll officially hits 400K - weeks earlier than the February 2021 estimate by the University of Washington’s model. The vaccine rollout continues to go chaotically. Experts note that the federal government failed to adequately interface with the states, and failed to set aside enough funding for vaccination implementation.

Topping the list of President-elect Biden's urgent tasks is cleaning up the Trump administration's deliberately anemic (and often counterproductive) responses to the worst health crisis in a century.

In October, Dr. Anthony Fauci had noted that "if we don’t do what we need to in the fall and winter, we could have 300,000 to 400,000 COVID-19 deaths." The death toll increased by 100,000 over the prior five weeks to arrive at that figure. The prior jump from 200K to 300K took 12 weeks. The disease has now killed more than one American out of every thousand. [The very first confirmed case in the US was on 1/20/20 - just one year earlier.]

The evening before the inauguration, Biden and VP Harris honor America's 400,000 deaths from COVID with a ceremony at the Lincoln Memorial, the first-ever formal recognition of the toll of the disease.

President Biden announces a new approach to dealing with COVID: experts will be heard from, not the POTUS. A new director is appointed for the CDC: Dr. Rochelle Walensky from Harvard Medical School. She replaces Dr. Robert Redfield, whose efforts were constantly stymied by political interference from the White House. Said Biden, "We're going to make sure they work free from political interference and that they make decisions strictly based on science and health care alone, science and health alone, not what the political consequences are."

Face mask use is mandated for interstate travelers via executive order of the president. This will apply to airports, planes, trains, ferries, intercity buses, and public transportation. The flight attendants union AFA had called for a mask mandate on flights back in April 2020, in letters to then Secretary of Transportation Elaine Chao and HHS Secretary Alex Azar. The Trump administration resisted such calls from industry or workers for such requirements. Chao, the wife of Senator (and now Minority Leader) Mitch McConnell, said the issue could be better handled by companies and employee unions. The airlines did establish such rules on their own.

Studies on people who have had COVID suggest that one dose of vaccine produces a robust immune response superior to a two dose regimen in individuals who have never had COVID. This suggests that if you have had COVID, it is not necessary to receive both doses. People who cannot show that they have received two shots may well face future travel restrictions; however, a second shot should act like a booster, and is probably a good idea.

The FDA authorizes a third vaccine - a single-shot regimen from Johnson and Johnson. To speed its production, the White House brokered a deal with Merck to dedicate two of its facilities to manufacturing the vaccine of rival J&J.

By now, 59 million Americans have received a first dose of COVID vaccine. Approximately 31 million are fully vaccinated with two doses. Anecdotal evidence is emerging that vaccines may help people with long-haul COVID symptoms, pointing out an area where more study is needed.

The US marks the one year anniversary of Donald Trump telling the nation that the coronavirus is "under control." 550,000 Americans have since died from the disease.

Trump's coronavirus response coordinator Dr. Deborah Birx reveals to CNN that the number of COVID-19 deaths could have been "decreased substantially" had the country turned the lessons of the initial surge into mitigations in the spring of 2020. Said Birx, "There were about a hundred thousand deaths that came from that original surge. All of the rest of them, in my mind, could have been mitigated or decreased substantially."

Researchers at Columbia University examine transmission rates between March 15 and May 3, 2020, and conclude that had the country shut down just two weeks earlier, it could have prevented 84% of the COVID deaths that followed. With the COVID death toll in the US at 560,000, multiplying that figure by 84% reveals 470,000 unnecessary deaths. [It should be noted that the first actions documented on this website were local and statewide. (What restrictions continue till now are also mainly local and state.) Thus, federal policies, coming late, and limited as they were, deserve a lion's share of blame for the death toll.]

India reports a 7th consecutive day of 200,000 new COVID-19 cases, and hits a new high of 295,000. In the prior week, India reported 1.5 million new cases.

A Rockefeller University study of "breakthrough" COVID infections, among 417 people fully vaccinated with either the Pfizer or Moderna vaccine, found only two cases, a rate of just 0.5%.

The COVID death toll in the US tops 600,000. The number of confirmed cases approaches 34 million, meaning that 10% of the US population contracted the virus. At this point, 37% of the US population, 122 million people, have been fully vaccinated.
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India continues its explosion of COVID, now with 400K new cases a day and 4,000 daily deaths. With 25M cases confirmed, India is now in second place after the US. It is believed, however, that the actual numbers of cases and deaths are a multiple of official figures. India seems destined to become the nation with the largest number of COVID cases. Their vaccine rollout has only fully vaccinated about 2% of the population. Officially, India has suffered 280,000 deaths as its second wave turns into the worst pandemic outbreak yet seen. The Modi government's policies, which allowed vast congregations to gather for Hindu religious festivals, made major contributions to India's current woes.

Brazil, a third large nation whose disastrous political actions worsened the COVID crisis, now stands at 15.6 million cases and 437,000 deaths. This is a death rate 10% worse than the US.
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Four other nations report official death tolls over 100,000: France (108K), Russia (116K), the UK (128K), and Italy (124K). It is certain that many populous nations in Asia, Africa, and South America are reporting low totals due to a lack of testing. Their Trump-like status is (a) probably the result of too-few tests rather than deliberate non-testing, and (b) NOT a way for the countries to benefit.
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South Korea, still a model nation for its rapid and aggressive response to the pandemic, has at this point just 132,000 COVID cases and fewer than 2,000 fatalities.

Facebook's new Oversight Board reviews Donald Trump's comments to incite violence in the Capitol insurrection of Jan. 6, and announces that the company will suspend him for two years.  The social media giant noted in a blog posting that it will reinstate him only “if the risk to public safety has receded.” The ruling reflects a reversal of policies that had produced years of criticism that it had been too deferential to Trump during his presidency, and allowed his lies to go unchallenged.

Deaths from COVID in the United States have fallen to their lowest levels since March 2020, as 53.4% of American adults are now fully vaccinated.

The worldwide Covid death toll for 2021 exceeds that of 2020 as the disease spreads to parts of Asia and Latin America with low vaccination rates. At this point in the year, 1.9 million people have died from Covid.

The WSJ reports that as China continues to allege that Covid was brought to the country in October 2019 from the Military World Games, it hinders outside investigators from gaining access to scientists at the Wuhan Virology Lab and workers at the city's wet market. The possibility of a lab accident will thus remain difficult to assess.

Less than half the staffers at nursing homes in 15 states have been fully vaccinated. These same states - among them Wyoming, Mississippi, and Alabama - also have lower overall vaccination rates.